New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Predictions, Odds & Probable Pitchers (July 29)

• The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees face off Monday night at 6:40 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park. The game is et to be aired on MLB Network and Prime Video.
• This is the first meeting between these 2 league leaders this season. The Phillies are the best team in Major League Baseball by record.
• See the probable pitchers, odds and a prediction for Monday’s game below.

The New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies meet for the first time this season on Monday, kicking off a 3-game series that lasts until Wednesday night.

The Phillies and Yankees hold the league’s first and fourth best records, respectively, and both are within the top 5 in a majority of statistical categories such as ERA, strikeouts, RBI and wins. Plenty would say we could be looking at a preview for the World Series Monday night.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Keep scrolling for a look at the latest odds for Monday night’s game, as well as a look at the starting pitchers and a prediction for how it will all go down.

Yankees vs. Phillies Odds

Odds above via Fanatics Sportsbook. Check out our Fanatics Sportsbook Promo for a look at one of the best welcome offers in the business. 

The Phillies are home favorites for this clash of the Titans at Citizens Bank Park. Fanatics has the Phillies as -140 favorites to win outright and +145 to win by 2 or more runs.

The Yankees sit at +115 to win outright and are overwhelming favorites on the runline at -175 to keep the game within a run.

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The Over/Under total for this matchup was set at 8.5 on Fanatics, with the over slightly favored at -120.

Yankees vs. Phillies Pitching Matchup

Luis Gil vs Zack Wheeler

By all accounts, tonight’s matchup pits 2 of the best performing pitchers in the league against the other. Wheeler has been among the league’s best for a while now and Gil is pitching the season of his young career in his new starting role.

Wheeler needs little introduction. He was a top 3 pitcher in the league last season and now sits at 4th in ERA, 7th in WHIP and 13th in total strikeouts on the season. And his 10-4 record is even more impressive when you remember that 3 of Wheeler’s losses on the season came all the way back in early April.

And Wheeler has had a spectacular July. He’s appeared in 3 matchups and has allowed just 11 hits and 3 earned runs across 18 innings pitched. In those 18 innings Wheeler also threw 21 strikeouts and walked just 6 batters. Wheeler has allowed more than 2 earned runs in a game just 4 times this season and just twice since mid-April.

His numbers against the Yankees lineup are dominant. Yankees batters are hitting just .226 against Wheeler across their careers, and only D.J. LeMahieu has seen somewhat sustained success with a .300 batting average across 10 at-bats. New Yankee Jazz Chisolm, in case you’re wondering, is batting .263 against Wheeler.

Let’s give Gil his flowers, too. As stated, Gil is pitching the season of his career to this point, owning a 3.10 ERA and a top 20 WHIP at 1.08.

As far as his performance across the 2024 season is concerned, it’s almost the opposite of Wheeler. Most of Gil’s losses have come in the last month or so, while 6 of his 10 wins came in the month of May. Incredibly, Gil earned a win in every game he started in May.

While it’s true that Gil had a June and early July to remember, he turned in a solid performance against the Baltimore Orioles on July 13, allowing just 1 earned run across 6 innings in a 6-1 win.

New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

• PHI vs. NYY pick: Phillies -140

The Phillies are fresh off a close series loss to the Cleveland Guardians, another one of the best teams in the league. They’ll be hungry for a series win after dropping 4 straight series in a row, not exactly the mark of a league-leading club.

So why am I picking the Phillies after they’ve lost 4 straight? The answer is Zack Wheeler, folks. He’s been dominant against this Yankees lineup in the past, he gets the home crowd at his back and he’s pitched a nearly flawless July.

For what it’s worth, I think the Yankees win Games 2 and 3 to take the series. Both have struggled some since the All-Star break, but New York is playing better baseball right now.