New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Odds, Predictions & Picks (April 11)

• The New York Mets face the Atlanta Braves in the rubber-match of a three-game series at Truist Park on Thursday
• The Braves are the only NL East team over .500
• See the Mets vs Braves odds, predictions, and starting pitchers for Thursday, April 11

The New York Mets (4-7, 3-2 away, 5-6 O/U) visit the Atlanta Braves (7-3, 4-1 home, 7-2-1 O/U) in the final game of a three-game set at Truist Field on Thursday afternoon at 12:20 pm ET.

With injuries already plaguing their starting rotation, the Braves are forced to give rookie Allan Winans his first start of the season. Veteran Jose Quintana starts for the Mets in a game that is expected to see plenty of runs.

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Odds

Atlanta is a -170 moneyline favorite on Thursday afternoon with the Mets at +145 to win their first series of the season. The over/under is sitting at 9.5. The hard-hitting Braves are the best over team in baseball so far this season at 7-2-1 O/U, while the Mets are a game to the under (5-6).

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Odds as of April 11 at ESPN Bet. Check out the best online betting apps to wager on Thursday’s Mets/Braves game. 

The Mets took the first game of the series (8-7), coming back from a 4-0 deficit in the process. Atlanta answered back in game two with a 6-5 win, but came perilously close to blowing a 6-0 eighth-inning lead.

The three-game series was supposed to be concluded yesterday but was postponed due to inclement weather.

Atlanta, which started the season as -278 favorites to win the NL East, has already improved to -377 in the MLB division odds. The Braves hold a two-game lead on the Phillies and are 3.5 ahead of the fourth-place Mets.

The Braves currently rank first in almost all salient team batting statistics. Atlanta is first in wRC+ (139), well ahead of second-ranked Texas (130), first in slugging (.512), first in wOBA (.387), and first in runs per game (6.9).

Ironically, reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr is one of the few Braves off to a slow start. Acuna is batting just .256 with a .691 OPS and has yet to homer this season, allowing the Dodgers’ Mookie Betts to take over as favorite in the 2024 NL MVP odds.

The Mets’ lineups is at the opposite end of the spectrum, ranking 21st in wRC+ (87), 26th in slugging (.333), and 23rd in wOBA (.296). New York is averaging half the runs per game of the Braves (3.45).

Jose Quintana vs Allan Winans

*Winans statistics from 2023 season.

Allan Winans, a 28-year-old righty, made the first six starts of his career last season, going 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA. But his peripherals were better than his surface stats, including a respectable 4.24 xERA and 4.09 FIP. He had terrible batted-ball luck last year, saddled with a .348 BABIP.

Two of Winans’ six starts last season came against the Mets. He dazzled in the first, going seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts while allowing just four hits and two walks in a 21-3 Atlanta win. The second was a disaster, though: seven runs on nine hits with four Ks in 4.1 innings of work in a 10-3 loss.

Quintana has been extremely lucky this season. Despite a 1.65 WHIP and 6.13 xERA, his actual ERA is just 2.61. He’s really struggled with his control, issuing six walks in just 10.1 innings.

Quintana also made two starts against the Braves last season, and the Mets were crushed in both, though that wasn’t all on Quintana as the offense failed to score a single run. The 35-year-old lefty combined to throw 11.1 innings in the two starts, allowing six runs on 13 hits and six walks with nine strikeouts.

Mets vs Braves Prediction

The Mets and Braves have combined to score 36 runs in the first two games of the series, and I don’t expect them to slow down on Thursday with Quintana and Winans on the mound. The Mets are slashing .385/.429/.538 against Winans in 26 at-bats with just four strikeouts and two walks.

In a much larger sample size (131 at-bats), the Braves have a .275 average and .822 OPS against Quintana. Ozzie Albies and Adam Duvall have both taken him deep twice.

NYM vs ATL pick: Over 9.5 runs (-105)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 MLB betting record: 8-2 (+4.05 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.