Mariners vs Rays Predictions, Picks & Player Props for June 26

• The Seattle Mariners (45-37) visit the Tampa Bay Rays (40-40) on Wednesday afternoon in the finale of a 3-game series.
• The Mariners send George Kirby (6-5, 3.47 ERA) to the mound, while the Rays counter with Ryan Pepiot (4-4, 4.61 ERA).
• Keep reading below to find our best picks for the Wednesday afternoon American League matinee.

The Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays finish off a 3-game series on Wednesday afternoon in Tampa. The Rays are going for the sweep, having earned a 4-3 win on Monday night and a blowout 11-3 victory on Tuesday. Still, the Mariners hold on to their lead in the AL West while the Rays find themselves in 4th place in a competitive AL East. Wednesday’s afternoon game is set to start at 12:10 p.m. ET and can be seen on regional broadcast networks.

Mariners vs Rays Picks

• Ryan Pepiot over 6.5 strikeouts (-115)
• Rays moneyline (+100)

Any time you can bet on a pitcher facing the Mariners to surpass his strikeouts total, it’s worth it. Seattle strikes out at the highest rate in baseball, whiffing more than 10 times per game. The Mariners are the only team in the majors averaging 10+ team strikeouts. Pepiot, meanwhile, is second to only Taj Bradley among Rays starters when it comes to K’s/9 innings. He strikes out 10.2 batters per 9 innings.

Pepiot hasn’t recorded 7+ K’s in either of his last 2 starts, but prior to facing the Pirates and Braves, he fanned 9 Orioles, 8 Marlins and 7 A’s. He has some elite swing-and-miss stuff and the Mariners don’t put much of a premium on contact, it seems.

For my other best pick, I’m simply riding the momentum of this series and taking the Rays to win at even +100 odds. Yes, George Kirby has been sharp for Seattle, allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in each of his last 4 starts. But the Mariners offense hasn’t shown much life so far in Florida.

Give me the Rays to squeeze out a narrow 1-run win today to finish off the series sweep and send the Mariners back to Seattle licking their wounds.

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Mariners vs Rays Odds

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Despite losing the first two games of the series, the Mariners are -120 favorites on the moneyline for today’s action. The Rays sport +100 odds, which I detailed above is a pick I like. If you think the Mariners can win by 2+ runs, you can score +145 odds. The over/under is set at 7.5 runs, with the over featuring +100 odds and the under sitting at -120.

Mariners vs Rays Starting Pitchers

This matchup slightly favors Kirby, who has the better record and ERA. Pepiot is a strikeout master, but when he doesn’t have his best swing-and-miss stuff, he can get into trouble.

Both pitchers struggle to keep the ball in the park when they’re off their games, as they’ve each allowed 11 home runs so far in 2024.

There isn’t much history between these pitchers and the hitters on the opposing teams. Pepiot has only faced 2 current members of the Mariners, but he’s struggled against them. Jorge Polanco is 1-for-2 with a home run and 3 RBI against Pepiot, while Josh Rojas is 1-for-3 with 2 walks.

Kirby has faced a few more of the Rays hitters, but they haven’t had much success. Current Tampa Bay players are a combined 6-for-44 (.136) with 0 home runs, 2 RBI and 15 strikeouts.

If both pitchers have their best stuff, this could end up being a low-scoring American League contest. As I mentioned earlier, I’ll take Pepiot and the Rays to get the job done, finishing off the 3-game sweep with another 1-run victory over Seattle.